IPCC Too Linear

The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) has a tough job trying to be no unduly influenced by politics and still at the same time get something out that means more than nothing. However, perhaps because of the fear of seeming too extreme, or because there aren't enough mathematicians in the mix, they always seem to keep leaving out some basic non-linear processes in their models. Most prominently is that it seems that in every report IPCC produces, it tones down the prospects of cataclysmic changes which are possible if glacial flows and melting of the WAIS (West Antarctic Ice Sheet) take place as so called 'rapid dynamic processes' or non-linear processes.

Even the layman can understand the obvious reasons why these non-linear processes are not all that unlikely. Ever been to a bar or had a cold drink with some ice in it? Ever tried to get the last drops out and had the ice hang in the glass until it all comes out in a rush onto your chin? Well, that's a 'rapid dynamic process' just like when a glacier gets some melt water or intrusion of sea water under it to lubricate it against the underlying earth over which it moves. Just like the tail end of your ice cold drink lubricates your ice cubes to slide onto your face, the glacier can move dramatically faster when this lubrication happens. Why these kinds of important processes are not included adequately in models is a mystery.

The result is that IPCC reports come to false conclusions, leaving off the 'too scary' prospects which aren't of the highest probability but are well within what should be the error bars - but aren't. People should get the respect they deserve and have the full story, not a dumbed down variant to keep them pacified.


Get the politics out of IPCC. Get the math back.